Hanged, Drawn, and Quartered: Signup Bonuses and the Fiscal Year

44 Comments
  1. Renee

    I enjoyed the article. And I thank you for reminding me to transfer my Amex points out. LOL!

  2. Jackliu6

    Long time lurker here, first of all thanks to all the contribution to PoT, it’s one of my must read websites. I really enjoy Kirin’s style of writing as it gives me the contextual background in which the ‘relevant content’ is situated in. Perhaps sometimes we are in a rush to act upon a piece of information that how the idea came into being get tossed by the wayside. Imagine the utterly lifelessness of language if every piece of information were written in logical statements. Looking forward to the next article and keep up the good work.

  3. Parminder

    Hey Kirin, hope you don’t take these comments too personally. Im sure some of us can learn from you on tips and tricks in the travel and card industry. I look forward to your future blogs. Good luck.

  4. Andrew

    My personal opinion is that part of the changes may be due to Covid-19 affecting consumer behavior, rather than business decisions related to quarterly results. I’d be interested to see how previous results affected business decisions in 2018 and 2019…

  5. Manu

    Read this thanks to its popularity (i am sure it generated some traffic thanks to the popcorn)

    Though not a fan of harsh comments, I am in someway aligned to the gist of the comments.

    1) The crux of the post is hardly 15 lines, rest is all fiction or say fluff.
    2) As another commenter noted, there is factual irregularities.
    3) 76% Drop in Profits is for a particular quarter (Q1) and is because Amex set aside 2.10B to counter against bad loans (primarily in SMB segment issued by Amex USA)

    What the author missed in his detailed analysis is the same issuer (Amex) had been giving generous retention offers and promos (be it shop small, Dell / Grocery credit) but only limiting or discouraging new Acquisitions (like other issuers). This is primarily because during conditions like this – the credit worthiness of an individual cannot be accurately assessed. Ie, John Doe can have a Salary stub or 2019 T4 which shows significant income – but that doesn’t guarantee that John Doe is still employed and financially stable. Usual KYC procedures are not 100% kosher in assessing credit worthiness during a recession like scenario and therefore the general strategy is to cut down on new acquisitions. This is key when moratoriums are declared for loans / mortgages / repayments and debt repayment terms are relaxed. When these happens, credit bureau report & routine KYC might not reflect the accurate financial stability of an individual – so the best way to keep your house shielded against bad debt is to reduce acquisition offers so that prospects are limited.

    Further, the author started with “Interchange” when describing ‘role of miles and points in marketplace’ but conveniently skipped the fact that almost every issuer is giving bonus multipliers (which at times surpass the interchange fee they make) for categories to incentivize the consumers to retain and use the card.

    Then the author went into ‘Shutdowns’ and then missed the fact that those shutdowns weren’t reported in the same proportion in the USA (as per /r/churning or FlyerTalk or Blogs) which is the primary market for American Express as a corporation especially with respect to its earnings / profits.

    In short, it’s a very long post with very little substance. Author is going to various tangents to kinda weave a simple one line summary but misses on analyzing each tangent to its totality. It would had been great if the author kept it short and cut the fluff or use those word count for a thorough analysis.

    At the end of article, like many others I too feel like it was mostly fluff with very little substance.

    1. Kirin

      Hello Manu, I certainly welcome and value a second opinion.

      I must state that I wrote this article on the path to help folks accumulate points – and the welcome bonus is the biggest thing that attracts Miles & Points enthusiasts. As good as retention multipliers are, they are not the bread and butter of what we do, nor are they the biggest black hole on a company’s spreadsheets. I therefore felt it was more important to address issues such as too much available credit or the generalized skewering of signup bonuses.

      When you refer to know your customer (KYC) legislation, that has more to do with internal banking processes than the trend of the market as a whole. I used Amex’s report more as an example of the whole.

      We can agree to disagree, and I thank you for your honesty!

      1. Frank

        "As good as retention multipliers are, they are not the bread and butter of what we do, nor are they the biggest black hole on a company’s spreadsheets. "

        Actually for Scotia their Gold Amex and Momentum Visa are loss leaders meaning they lose money on those products. Most people use those cards only for category spend and don’t put enough 1x spend for it to be offset.

        1. Anthony K

          "Actually for Scotia their Gold Amex and Momentum Visa are loss leaders meaning they lose money on those products. Most people use those cards only for category spend and don’t put enough 1x spend for it to be offset."

          *Citation required

    2. Carl

      It’s a very long comment with very little substance. It would had been great if commenter kept it short and cut.

      1. John

        Quoting Ricky

        “Those who don’t have constructive input to offer, on the other hand, should consider the revolutionary strategy of keeping it to themselves.“

        1. John

          My earlier comment was for @Carl

          Somehow the post reply puts everything under same thread

      2. Manu

        Ha ha, noted; I should learn from the OP or say alt account Carl

        1. Mike

          Manu thanks for providing a fresh comprehensive analysis on the shortcomings. Seems people cant take criticism these days

        2. MK

          Well put Manu. Agree with almost 100% of it. Carl obviously has a bias to the author.. any neutral feels bad for the comments – but at the end of the day it is true.. article was way to verbose, with very little content.

  6. PoopyChurner

    I have re-read this blog post again after reading so many harsh comments below. I think it is well written – just different from other writers. I only see the changes in sign-up bonuses as real-time adjustments, but it was an interest point of view to analyze them from quarterly reporting. Kirin – hope you didn’t take negative comments too personally, and I look forward to more blog posts from you!

  7. Ricky YVR

    These comments have devolved into a bit of a farce. I know most readers leave feedback in good faith, which is appreciated and welcomed, and I’m sure Kirin will incorporate it into his future articles.

    Those who don’t have constructive input to offer, on the other hand, should consider the revolutionary strategy of keeping it to themselves.

    1. John

      Ricky, if there’s so much of bashing – there will be some truth.

      1. Ricky YVR

        I don’t doubt that, I’d just expect everyone to keep it civil instead of resorting to playground insults.

    2. Ron

      There are multiple people that thought this post was useless and primarily fluff so dont think we are being unduly harsh.

      1. Tom S.

        Dear Ron, if that is your real name… it seems to me that Ricky was referring to YOU, not the other posters, or whoever WE is. You’ve commented bashing the article four different separate times. It’s very clear you either have a personal vendetta against Kirin, or you need to have a Snickers.

      2. Lane McMillan

        Don’t worry Ron, one day you’ll look back at this and think, "shucks, if only I did smarter"

      3. Jose

        Don’t worry Kirin, you are doing well, keep writing as no one can make everyone happy. I enjoy reading this article.

        Everyone has different opinions which is fine but to those losers need to know if people are keep poking them in their face then they will know how it feel. Those losers don’t pay to read this blog so just ignore their lousy comments.

  8. Just another Reader

    Can you please add a filter so that some of us can skip such fluff posts going forward? Like filter by author?

    No offence, but this was more like a glorified vomit.

    1. John

      Think that was a bit too harsh to call it vomit but I will agree that the post add no value

    2. Rhett

      "By Kirin". If you could actually read, you’d find this written at the top of the article. Do you also want a warning popup before each of that guys articles? Grow up

  9. Jose

    Ron, you are definitely an idiot and a loser. I repeat you are a lousy loser.

    1. Ron

      Well it seems others share my sentiments. I rest my case

  10. TJ

    I have to agree with the tone of the other comments. The humour is fine but it felt like only 20% of the article was actually relevant content and the rest was fluff. I like this blog because it is super informative and well presented but with so much filler and not as much content I feel like it loses a lot of integrity/value.

    1. John

      100%

      This post was nothing but mumbu jumbo

  11. GoatButtMcGee

    Nicely written Kirin. I like the humorous approach to your writing and void info provided considering the harsh economic and travel times we live in currently.

  12. Eric

    This added nothing to my knowledge. And is poorly written.

    Dear reader: paraphrasing oneself is bad form. Please refer to the aforementioned above.

    1. Kirin

      Well I will definitely adapt some of my writing if folks feel it unentertaining. At the same time I’d invite you to consider that many within our hobby are brand new to the dual worlds of finance and business, both of which are fairly complex but also define how our hobby functions. No earnings report, no points program after all. We hobbyists, collectively, are another line on a balance sheet. That is a depressing way of addressing the complex issue, so I choose to explain with a bit more humour. I also like poking fun at myself as many a time have I engaged in less than optimal accumulation or redemption strategies. As for why I put memes, they are as much for my own entertainment as anyone else. And I would also note in every article where I post a meme or piece of Revolutionary literature there is always a hidden nod to something useful for miles & points enthusiasts 😉

      1. Eric

        I was too quick draw on the criticism. I apologize if I offended. I tried to soften it with my grammar jokes but I don’t think anyone got it. I read all of your posts. This one wasn’t your best but I’ve read many worse on similar topics. I encourage you to keep sharing your knowledge.

        I wasn’t able to figure out what was on the computer screen as it was too fuzzy. Nor was I able to figure out the immediate tasks reference. Damn. I’m weak that way lol.

    2. Mitchell McNall

      I had the exact same thoughts from reading this. Also, I don’t need to see memes that add no value and aren’t relevant while reading an article..

      1. Ron

        Agreed. There was a lot of filler and not a lot of content. Useless memes that arent even relevant.

        Ricky why did you give Kirin an outlet if he hasnt written anything useful regarding budget travel? At least Amy and Tiezheng can write something relevant and coherent.

        1. Ricky YVR

          I think you’re being unduly harsh on Kirin here. As another reader put it, a discerning eye will help you spot the relevant parts among the crying cats.

      2. Eric

        Did ya see what I did there? 😉

  13. Ron

    Not gonna lie this is a terrible post/article. Not much value is being added here.

    1. Kirin

      I’m sorry you’ve felt that way. On the one hand, I want to do what Mitch here is pointing out and take a bit more of a "birds eye view" for our strategies. Ie, you may see what seem like a lame bonus now, but in the conditions of economic crisis, it will probably go down. So Billy Mays it and act now. But on the other hand, what would you have felt brings more value to your tactics when looking at the financial quarter.

    2. Mitch

      Because we’re exploring the valid philosophy and underlying emotions of our hobby? Plenty is being added here for the discerning churner, a collective sanity check consistent with the overall tone of the blog and its contributors. Maybe RFD is more your speed?

  14. Kunal

    Actually, the fiscal year for Canadian banks (not AmEx, HSBC) is from November 1st to October 31st so we’re nearing the end of their Q3.

    1. Kirin

      Thanks, I’ll make note of it for a correction or future articles. I was basing a lot of this off Amex as obviously they were of greatest concern to many recently due to the shutdowns.

      1. Ron

        So you write an article about Financial Quarter but don’t do the due diligence to note that the Big 5 Banks fiscal year ends on Oct 31st. Bravo!

        1. Pete

          You do sound like Kirin must have broken your heart somehow so you kept going after him. What a pity poor crying loser! LOL!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Have an Account? Click here to Login